New research from scientists and the European Central Bank suggests that global warming and heatwaves will lead to a further increase in food prices and overall inflation worldwide in the future.
Published in the Journal Communications Earth and Environment on Thursday, the study predicts that this impact will be felt everywhere, particularly in developing nations.
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, and floods, attributed to climate change, is expected to take a toll on vital sectors such as farming and food production.
The research, conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the European Central Bank, analyzed historical price and weather data from 121 countries spanning from 1996 to 2021.
They forecast that rising temperatures due to climate change will drive up food costs globally by an estimated 1.49 to 1.79 percentage points annually by 2035.
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Under both best and worst-case scenarios, the study suggests that future warming and heat extremes could lead to an increase in overall inflation by 0.76 to 0.91 percentage points.
Maximilian Kotz, one of the report’s authors from PIK, highlighted the strong evidence indicating that higher temperatures, especially in hot regions, contribute to price increases, particularly in food inflation.
The study emphasizes that the impact of rising temperatures on food prices and inflation will be most pronounced in regions already experiencing hotter climates, especially in poorer and developing parts of the world.
Africa and South America are projected to be the continents most affected, although the northern hemisphere, particularly during summer, will also experience significant price hikes.
The research indicates that global warming’s impact on other household expenses, aside from electricity prices, is relatively insignificant.
This finding aligns with previous studies demonstrating agriculture’s particular vulnerability to climate shocks.
Additionally, the study highlights that a major heatwave in Europe during the summer of 2022 likely caused food inflation to rise by 0.67 percentage points, with a more pronounced effect in southern Europe.
The report warns that future climate change will intensify the frequency and magnitude of such heat extremes, thereby exacerbating their potential impact on inflation.
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